superbowl bets

[kimball]

alot of the last few superbowls actually had defenses, detroit put up 27 vs. NO

Pitt, New England, Giants, and Bears all had GREAT defenses, and the bears defense was very good a few years ago when Peyton and co. put up 27. theres no defense in this game and I think Indy typically plays to the level of their competition they either out score them in a shootout OR eat the clock if the team has a good defense.....and obviously the Saints can score, so Im gonna go the shootout right.................two dimes on Indy and the over

Sounds like a man with a plan. My heart says NO but my head says Payton. The Colts have not lost a game this season... that they wanted to win. Payton also had his way with the Jets in the second half. If the Vikings would of held on to the ball... they would be playing Sunday.

I'm still a toss up... I'll make up my mind by Sunday morning.

[masterdeviance]

Before Freeney's injury, I would have been suspicious of taking the over like kimball. But with Freeney injured or out and that horrible Saints secondary, the over seems like the best choice to me.

As for taking Indy or NO....I have to go with Peyton.

[Bababooey323]

alot of the last few superbowls actually had defenses, detroit put up 27 vs. NO

Pitt, New England, Giants, and Bears all had GREAT defenses, and the bears defense was very good a few years ago when Peyton and co. put up 27. theres no defense in this game and I think Indy typically plays to the level of their competition they either out score them in a shootout OR eat the clock if the team has a good defense.....and obviously the Saints can score, so Im gonna go the shootout right.................two dimes on Indy and the over

Damn, that's WAAAAAAAY more scratch than I'm going to Vegas with hahaha

[nyc2vegas]

Damn, that's WAAAAAAAY more scratch than I'm going to Vegas with hahaha

yeah but look at it this way.....it will ultimately be four dimes

[AK2Vegas]

No... some are more funny than anything. But some of those trends are VERY important. Such as ATS when betting over the course of the season. But looking at the over / under from the last 5 or 6 superbowls means something. Who is wearing what color... not so much.

Yes, I totally agree about the funess. But the spread changes so the ATS isn't a good indicator as to the next matchup. Also there is nothing about the past superbowls that really matter here. Imagine going through the season and changing the spread by three points and then seeing the ATS records. What I'm arguing is that they are arbitrary to what happens on the field.

Most people love the over with these two teams... I'm not sold. Some people think I'm crazy. The last 5 superbowls... 50 points or less. Those teams could score. If you like the over take it... you have a 50 / 50 shot.

I'm not sold either. Anything could happen. Payton gets food poisoning or in a car crash. Take the wait and see approach. Make you bets the same day if you can.

Sounds like a man with a plan. My heart says NO but my head says Payton. The Colts have not lost a game this season... that they wanted to win. Payton also had his way with the Jets in the second half. If the Vikings would of held on to the ball... they would be playing Sunday.

I'm still a toss up... I'll make up my mind by Sunday morning.

Not to mention that the Saints got a lot of REALLY good calls (I"m not saying all teams don't get these but these guys had themselves propelled into the superbowl because of it.) I'll know about an hour before kickoff.

[kimball]

AK2VEGAS...

Here's what I like about ATS.
The Saints are 1-6 ATS over the last 7 games... your right here... toss that out. Means nothing.

However, the Colts are 7-2 ATS over the last 9 games. Those two games the colts didn't want to win. The colts have not lost a game this year they wanted to win. Toss out those two games... the other 7 the colts covered every game. I like that.

It's funny these teams are in the superbowl... these are the two teams I bet with the most over the season... and won with.

As far as going through the season and moving the spread 3 points... I would stay away from those games. I backed off games that moved a point or half point.

The Saints are a great story... but the more I think about it... and this line stays at 5.5... I like the Colts.

Still don't feel good about the over / under ... might not even bet it.

[AK2Vegas]

AK2VEGAS...

Here's what I like about ATS.
The Saints are 1-6 ATS over the last 7 games... your right here... toss that out. Means nothing.

However, the Colts are 7-2 ATS over the last 9 games. Those two games the colts didn't want to win. The colts have not lost a game this year they wanted to win. Toss out those two games... the other 7 the colts covered every game. I like that.

It's funny these teams are in the superbowl... these are the two teams I bet with the most over the season... and won with.

As far as going through the season and moving the spread 3 points... I would stay away from those games. I backed off games that moved a point or half point.

The Saints are a great story... but the more I think about it... and this line stays at 5.5... I like the Colts.

Still don't feel good about the over / under ... might not even bet it.

I hear what you're saying, but disagree. The numbers, while statistically are sound (they won more than they lost), still contain a variably arbitrary number (in this case two). The spread itself, and the number of nine games. Why nine? If we're going to assume any amount of games it should be the entire season, unless, something specific happens (injury etc).

If it stays at 5.5 or less I'm leaning Colts but torn by the unpredictablilty of football. We mostly agree the Colts will win, but that late fourth quarter drive to take tie the game and then lost to an INT and then field goal is always present in this game.

I agree about the over/under.

[Matt]

https://sports.bodog.com/sports-bett...l-football.jsp

top right is a drop down that converts the odds to decimal and fractional the way you guys do it...hope that helps. I assume the rest you knew, it was just the odds right?

Aha, that's very helpful, thanks!

[kimball]

vegasinser.com says the line at the Hilton is now Colts -5 ... we'll have to wait and see if the weekend money moves it back up. I don't see it going down.

However, It is 4.5 on sportsbook.com, right now.

[Bababooey323]

Saints and Over. Do it. Win.

[chillin@thebellag]

apparently the only thing that's a lock these days is that the nfc will win the cointoss....i think i'm gonna take the under in every SB from now on.

[IRockNvegas]

Anybody win anything?

[masterdeviance]

That damn onside kick totally changed the game...

I'm also curious how anyone who was in Vegas this weekend did with their SB bets. Kimball and other peeps?

[AK2Vegas]

Anybody win anything?

No. And I'm bitter.

I don't think I'll watch NFL anymore.

[Bababooey323]

SAINTS BABY... I had my money on them, like I told you all to do. Should have listened to me, especially that one dude who wanted to drop 4 large. lol